Deportivo de A Coruna vs Porto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo de A Corunavs
PortoThe model puts Porto at 47%. The model leans toward Porto. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Porto.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo de A Coruna (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo de A Coruna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Porto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo de A Coruna have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Porto is priced at 2.045.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo de A Coruna at 28%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Porto at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Porto. Deportivo de A Coruna is priced at 3.42. The draw is priced at 3.66. Porto is priced at 2.045.
Deportivo de A Coruna have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo de A Coruna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Porto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo de A Coruna or Porto?
Our model rates Porto as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo de A Coruna vs Porto?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Deportivo de A Coruna wins, 1 draws, 0 Porto wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.