Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Azerbaijanvs
LithuaniaThe model puts Azerbaijan at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Lithuania.
- +The head-to-head record favours Azerbaijan (1-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Azerbaijan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lithuania have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Azerbaijan have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Azerbaijan is priced at 2.28.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Azerbaijan at 41%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Lithuania at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is priced at 2.28. The draw is priced at 3.24. Lithuania is priced at 3.26.
Azerbaijan have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Azerbaijan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Lithuania have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Azerbaijan or Lithuania?
Our model rates Azerbaijan as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Azerbaijan wins, 2 draws, 0 Lithuania wins.
Odds movement
League table
UEFA Nations League - League D| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Malta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 2 |  Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 3 |  Andorra | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.