Montenegro vs Armenia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Montenegrovs
ArmeniaThe model puts Montenegro at 57%. The model leans toward Montenegro. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Armenia.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Montenegro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Armenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Montenegro have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Montenegro is priced at 1.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Montenegro at 57%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Armenia at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Montenegro. Montenegro is priced at 1.6. The draw is priced at 3.92. Armenia is priced at 5.75.
Montenegro have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Armenia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Montenegro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Armenia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Montenegro or Armenia?
Our model rates Montenegro as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Montenegro vs Armenia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 3 Montenegro wins, 1 draws, 3 Armenia wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Finland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:0 | 4 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.