Al Nassr vs Al Draih: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al Nassrvs
Al DraihThe model puts Al Nassr at 65%. The model leans toward Al Nassr. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al Nassr.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al Nassr have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Draih have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Nassr is priced at 1.473.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al Nassr at 65%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Al Draih at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Al Nassr. Al Nassr is priced at 1.473. The draw is priced at 4.755. Al Draih is priced at 5.53.
Al Draih have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Al Nassr have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Al Draih have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al Nassr or Al Draih?
Our model rates Al Nassr as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al Nassr vs Al Draih?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Al Nassr wins, 0 draws, 1 Al Draih wins.
League table
Saudi Arabia. Saudi Professional League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Riyadh | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 23:5 | 18 |
| 2 |  Al-Ittihad Jeddah | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12:6 | 17 |
| 3 | Al Nassr | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Al-Qadisiyah | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:8 | 16 |
| 5 |  Neom SC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13:6 | 15 |
| 6 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16:10 | 12 |
| 7 |  Al Kholood | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Draih | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 9 |  Ettifaq Dammam | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 10 |  Al Hazem Rass | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 11 |  Al-Riyadh SC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:16 | 8 |
| 12 |  Al Feiha | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:11 | 6 |
| 13 |  Al-Khaleej | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 5 |
| 14 |  Al Shabab Riyadh | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 16 |  Al-Faisaly Harmah | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5:13 | 3 |
| 17 |  Al-Taawon | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3:12 | 3 |
| 18 |  Abha | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:13 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.