Bahamas vs United States Virgin Islands: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bahamasvs
United States Virgin IslandsThe model puts United States Virgin Islands at 58%. United States Virgin Islands have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours United States Virgin Islands.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- United States Virgin Islands are on 2 wins in a row.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
- United States Virgin Islands is priced at 1.62.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
United States Virgin Islands have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Bahamas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
United States Virgin Islands are on 2 wins in a row. United States Virgin Islands have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Bahamas have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
The model puts United States Virgin Islands at 58%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Bahamas at 20%.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bahamas or United States Virgin Islands?
Our model rates United States Virgin Islands as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bahamas vs United States Virgin Islands?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Bahamas wins, 1 draws, 1 United States Virgin Islands wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montserrat | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  Turks and Caicos Islands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  British Virgin Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.