Nicaragua vs Dominican Republic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nicaraguavs
Dominican RepublicThe model puts Dominican Republic at 55%. The model leans toward Dominican Republic. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Nicaragua (3-1-1).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Nicaragua are on 2 wins in a row.
- Nicaragua have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
- Dominican Republic is priced at 1.65.
- The market leans toward Dominican Republic.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Dominican Republic at 55%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Nicaragua at 23%.
Nicaragua are on 2 wins in a row. Nicaragua have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Dominican Republic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nicaragua have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Dominican Republic have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Dominican Republic is priced at 1.65. The market leans toward Dominican Republic.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nicaragua or Dominican Republic?
Our model rates Dominican Republic as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nicaragua vs Dominican Republic?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 3 Nicaragua wins, 1 draws, 1 Dominican Republic wins.
Odds movement
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Curacao | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12:5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Haiti | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Dominican Republic | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 4 |  Costa Rica | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 5 |  Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 6 | Nicaragua | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3:12 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.