Aruba vs Anguilla: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Arubavs
AnguillaThe model puts Aruba at 90%. The model leans toward Aruba. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Aruba.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Aruba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Anguilla have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aruba is priced at 1.04.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 17 | 3 | ||||
| 2 | 21 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 17 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 11 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Aruba at 90%. The model puts the draw at 7%. The model puts Anguilla at 3%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Aruba. Aruba is priced at 1.04. The draw is priced at 12. Anguilla is priced at 35.
Anguilla have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Aruba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Aruba are on 2 wins in a row. Anguilla have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 17% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aruba or Anguilla?
Our model rates Aruba as the most likely outcome at 90% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aruba vs Anguilla?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Aruba wins, 0 draws, 1 Anguilla wins.
League table
CONCACAF Nations League. League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montserrat | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  Turks and Caicos Islands | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0:11 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.