CONCACAF Nations League

Costa Rica vs Haiti: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Costa Ricavs

Haiti

Our predictionHaiti to win

Model score: Low · 24/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Haiti at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Haiti.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Costa Rica37%

Draw25%

2 · Haiti38%

1 · Costa RicaDraw2 · Haiti

Full team comparison →

Recent form

Costa RicaWLLLL

HaitiWWWLL

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

0-19.8%

1-09.5%

1-28.3%

2-18.0%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

Costa Rica

Haiti

Expected goals

1.28Costa Rica

1.32Haiti

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Costa Rica Haiti

Key points

Costa Rica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Haiti have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Costa Rica have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Haiti is priced at 2.52.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Haiti win2.52Fair (+1.8%)

Double chanceHaiti or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	10	6	3
1	10	13	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2
3	3	3	2
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Haiti2.52+1.8%

1X2Draw3.72+0.2%

1X2Costa Rica2.38-1.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Costa Rica at 37%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Haiti at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. Costa Rica is priced at 2.375. The draw is priced at 3.72. Haiti is priced at 2.52.

Costa Rica have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Haiti have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.

Costa Rica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Haiti have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Haiti are on 3 wins in a row.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →