CONCACAF Nations League

Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Guadeloupevs

Saint Lucia

Our predictionSaint Lucia to win

Model score: High · 64/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Saint Lucia at 53%. The model leans toward Saint Lucia. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Saint Lucia.
−The head-to-head record favours Guadeloupe (2-0-1).

Win probabilities

1 · Guadeloupe24%

Draw23%

2 · Saint Lucia53%

1 · GuadeloupeDraw2 · Saint Lucia

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.25+9.8%

1X2Saint Lucia1.81+1.5%

1X2Guadeloupe3.79-0.2%

1X2Draw3.80-1.3%

BTTSYes1.57-9.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Guadeloupe

Saint Lucia

Most likely scorelines

0-112.4%

1-111.5%

0-210.4%

1-29.6%

0-07.4%

1-06.9%

Recent form

GuadeloupeLLLLL

Saint LuciaWDWWL

Expected goals

0.93Guadeloupe

1.67Saint Lucia

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score49%

Match DNA

Guadeloupe Saint Lucia

Key points

Guadeloupe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Saint Lucia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Guadeloupe have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Saint Lucia is priced at 1.81.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Saint Lucia win1.81Fair (+1.5%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	12	10	6	2
1	7	12	10	5	2
2	3	5	4	2	1
3		2	1
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Guadeloupe at 24%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Saint Lucia at 53%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Saint Lucia. Guadeloupe is priced at 3.79. The draw is priced at 3.8. Saint Lucia is priced at 1.81.

Guadeloupe have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Saint Lucia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.

Guadeloupe have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Saint Lucia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →