Cuba vs Saint Kitts and Nevis: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cubavs
Saint Kitts and NevisThe model puts Cuba at 58%. The model leans toward Cuba. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cuba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Saint Kitts and Nevis have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cuba have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cuba is priced at 1.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cuba at 58%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Saint Kitts and Nevis at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Cuba. Cuba is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 4.3. Saint Kitts and Nevis is priced at 4.575.
Cuba have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Saint Kitts and Nevis have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cuba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Saint Kitts and Nevis have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cuba or Saint Kitts and Nevis?
Our model rates Cuba as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cuba vs Saint Kitts and Nevis?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 Cuba wins, 2 draws, 1 Saint Kitts and Nevis wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.