Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Luxembourgvs
BulgariaThe model puts Luxembourg at 48%. The model leans toward Luxembourg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Luxembourg (8-3-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Luxembourg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bulgaria have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Luxembourg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Luxembourg is priced at 2.05.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Luxembourg at 48%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Bulgaria at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Luxembourg. Luxembourg is priced at 2.05. The draw is priced at 3.44. Bulgaria is priced at 3.62.
Luxembourg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Bulgaria have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Luxembourg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bulgaria have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Luxembourg or Bulgaria?
Our model rates Luxembourg as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 8 Luxembourg wins, 3 draws, 1 Bulgaria wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Finland | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:1 | 7 |
| 2 |  Albania | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0:14 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.