Belarus vs Finland: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Belarusvs
FinlandThe model puts Finland at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Belarus (3-3-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Belarus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Finland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belarus have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Finland is priced at 2.09.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Belarus at 29%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Finland at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Finland. Belarus is priced at 3.48. The draw is priced at 3.46. Finland is priced at 2.09.
Belarus have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Belarus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Finland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Belarus or Finland?
Our model rates Finland as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Belarus vs Finland?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Belarus wins, 3 draws, 0 Finland wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League C| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finland | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:1 | 7 |
| 2 |  Albania | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 3 | Belarus | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0:14 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.