Stoke City II vs Derby County II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Stoke City IIvs
Derby County IIThe model puts Derby County II at 43%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The model puts Derby County II at 43%.
- The model puts Stoke City II at 33%.
- Derby County II is priced at 2.1.
- Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Derby County II at 43%. The model puts Stoke City II at 33%.
Derby County II is priced at 2.1. Stoke City II is priced at 2.755. The draw is priced at 3.7.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Stoke City II or Derby County II?
Our model rates Derby County II as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Stoke City II vs Derby County II?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.