Varese vs Aurora Pro Patria 1919: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Varesevs
Aurora Pro Patria 1919The model puts Aurora Pro Patria 1919 at 48%. The model leans toward Aurora Pro Patria 1919. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Varese have 1 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919 have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919 is priced at 1.88.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Varese at 23%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Aurora Pro Patria 1919 at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Aurora Pro Patria 1919. Varese is priced at 4.015. The draw is priced at 3.05. Aurora Pro Patria 1919 is priced at 1.88.
Varese have 1 wins in their last 4 matches. Aurora Pro Patria 1919 have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 43% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Varese or Aurora Pro Patria 1919?
Our model rates Aurora Pro Patria 1919 as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Varese vs Aurora Pro Patria 1919?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.