Pavia vs Santangelo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paviavs
SantangeloThe model puts Pavia at 51%. The model puts Santangelo at 22%. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Pavia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Santangelo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pavia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
- Pavia is priced at 1.84.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Santangelo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Pavia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Santangelo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Pavia is priced at 1.84. Santangelo is priced at 3.855.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pavia or Santangelo?
Our model rates Pavia as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pavia vs Santangelo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Pavia wins, 1 draws, 1 Santangelo wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.