Virtus Francavilla vs Gravina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Virtus Francavillavs
GravinaThe model puts Virtus Francavilla at 48%. The model leans toward Virtus Francavilla. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Gravina.
- +The head-to-head record favours Virtus Francavilla (2-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Virtus Francavilla have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gravina have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Virtus Francavilla have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gravina have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Virtus Francavilla have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Gravina have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Virtus Francavilla have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Gravina have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
The model puts Virtus Francavilla at 48%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Gravina at 25%.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 50% for both teams to score.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Virtus Francavilla or Gravina?
Our model rates Virtus Francavilla as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Virtus Francavilla vs Gravina?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Virtus Francavilla wins, 2 draws, 1 Gravina wins.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.