Ancona vs Fossombrone: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The model puts Ancona at 61%. The model leans toward Ancona. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ancona have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fossombrone have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ancona have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ancona is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Ancona at 61%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Fossombrone at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ancona. Ancona is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 4.05. Fossombrone is priced at 5.5.
Ancona have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Fossombrone have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ancona have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Fossombrone have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ancona or Fossombrone?
Our model rates Ancona as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ancona vs Fossombrone?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 2 Ancona wins, 4 draws, 1 Fossombrone wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.