El Mokawloon vs El Gouna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
El Mokawloonvs
El GounaThe model puts El Mokawloon at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours El Gouna (3-4-8).
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- El Mokawloon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- El Gouna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- El Mokawloon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- El Mokawloon is priced at 2.14.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts El Mokawloon at 41%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts El Gouna at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. El Mokawloon is priced at 2.14. The draw is priced at 2.84. El Gouna is priced at 3.45.
El Mokawloon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. El Gouna have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
El Mokawloon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. El Gouna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, El Mokawloon or El Gouna?
Our model rates El Mokawloon as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for El Mokawloon vs El Gouna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 El Mokawloon wins, 4 draws, 8 El Gouna wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.