Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hannover 96vs
St. PauliThe model puts Hannover 96 at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours St. Pauli.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Hannover 96 are dealing with notable absentees.
- +St. Pauli are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Hannover 96 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hannover 96 have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Hannover 96 will be without Bundu, Gindorf, Karl Steinmann.
- St. Pauli will be without Jansson Ro., Mathisen M., Pereira Ma., Thordarson.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hannover 96 at 43%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts St. Pauli at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Hannover 96. Hannover 96 is priced at 2.1. The draw is priced at 3.76. St. Pauli is priced at 3.045.
Hannover 96 have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Pauli have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hannover 96 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Pauli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Hannover 96 average 1 goals per game this season. Hannover 96 average 52% possession. St. Pauli average 2 goals per game this season. St. Pauli average 47% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hannover 96 or St. Pauli?
Our model rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Hannover 96 wins, 3 draws, 5 St. Pauli wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:8 | 21 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 20:10 | 17 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:12 | 14 |
| 4 |  1. Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | 13 |
| 5 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19:12 | 12 |
| 6 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:4 | 12 |
| 7 | St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:8 | 10 |
| 8 |  Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15:16 | 8 |
| 9 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:12 | 8 |
| 10 |  VfL Osnabruck | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:13 | 7 |
| 12 |  VfL Bochum | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5:7 | 7 |
| 13 | Hannover 96 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:12 | 7 |
| 14 | 1. Magdeburg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8:14 | 7 |
| 15 |  Greuther Furth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 6 |
| 16 |  Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:15 | 5 |
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6:14 | 5 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7:11 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.