Tijuana vs Puebla: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tijuanavs
PueblaThe model puts Tijuana at 55%. The model leans toward Tijuana. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Tijuana are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Puebla are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tijuana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tijuana have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tijuana will be without Bilbao Arteta, Mora Zambrano.
- Puebla will be without Baltazar Agraz, Sanabria S., Velasco K..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Tijuana at 55%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Puebla at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tijuana. Tijuana is priced at 1.66. The draw is priced at 3.85. Puebla is priced at 4.59.
Tijuana have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Puebla have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tijuana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Puebla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tijuana or Puebla?
Our model rates Tijuana as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tijuana vs Puebla?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Tijuana wins, 3 draws, 6 Puebla wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.