Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sparta Rotterdamvs
AjaxThe model puts Ajax at 58%. The model leans toward Ajax. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sparta Rotterdam (12-3-0).
- −Ajax are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sparta Rotterdam have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ajax have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sparta Rotterdam will be without Mito.
- Ajax will be without Henrique C., Edvardsen, Gaaei, Adingra, Berghuis, Blind, Dolberg.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sparta Rotterdam at 23%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Ajax at 58%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Ajax. Sparta Rotterdam is priced at 5.3. The draw is priced at 4.74. Ajax is priced at 1.53.
Sparta Rotterdam have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sparta Rotterdam have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Ajax have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sparta Rotterdam average 0 goals per game this season. Sparta Rotterdam average 40% possession. Ajax average 2 goals per game this season. Ajax average 69% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 35% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sparta Rotterdam or Ajax?
Our model rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 12 Sparta Rotterdam wins, 3 draws, 0 Ajax wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27:12 | 19 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27:12 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Groningen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22:19 | 14 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:11 | 12 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20:21 | 11 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:26 | 11 |
| 12 |  N.E.C. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:22 | 9 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:18 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:26 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.