PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
PSV Eindhovenvs
FeyenoordThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 50%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Feyenoord score more per game (3.0 at home vs 4.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours PSV Eindhoven (8-4-3).
- +PSV Eindhoven creates more chances (22 vs 19 shots per game).
- +PSV Eindhoven controls more of the ball (67% vs 53%).
- −PSV Eindhoven are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Feyenoord are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Feyenoord have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- PSV Eindhoven will be without Nagalo, Ouaissa, van Bommel, Wanner, Kostic, Lammers S., Mijnans, Pepi R., Plea, Sildillia, Schouten J..
- Feyenoord will be without Beelen, van Persie, Bos, Moder, Nelson R., Nieuwkoop, Smal G..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 50%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Feyenoord at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-2.
The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.98. The draw is priced at 4.22. Feyenoord is priced at 3.2.
PSV Eindhoven have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Feyenoord have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
PSV Eindhoven have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Feyenoord have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
PSV Eindhoven average 3 goals per game this season. PSV Eindhoven average 67% possession. Feyenoord average 4 goals per game this season. Feyenoord average 53% possession.
The model gives 87% for both teams to score. The model gives 94% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
A scoreline around 3-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 PSV Eindhoven wins, 4 draws, 3 Feyenoord wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven
- 0Kovar M.
- 0Kostic
- 0Gasiorowski
- 0Geertruida
- 0Dest
- 0Sano
- 0Junior Maur.
- 0Perisic
- 0Mijnans
- 0Bajraktarevic
- 0Til G.
- Nagalo (Missing Player)
- Ouaissa (Questionable)
- van Bommel (Questionable)
- Wanner (Questionable)
- Kostic (Questionable)
- Lammers S. (Questionable)
- Mijnans (Missing Player)
- Pepi R. (Questionable)
- Plea (Missing Player)
- Sildillia (Missing Player)
- Schouten J. (Missing Player)
Feyenoord
- 0Ernst
- 0Lopes
- 0Marmol
- 0Juste
- 0Read
- 0Zechiel
- 0Vanhoutte C.
- 0Targhalline
- 0Valente
- 0Ferri
- 0Hadj Moussa
- Beelen (Missing Player)
- van Persie (Questionable)
- Bos (Missing Player)
- Moder (Questionable)
- Nelson R. (Questionable)
- Nieuwkoop (Questionable)
- Smal G. (Questionable)
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27:12 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27:12 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Groningen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22:19 | 14 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:11 | 12 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20:21 | 11 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:26 | 11 |
| 12 |  N.E.C. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:22 | 9 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:18 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:26 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.