Willem II vs Cambuur: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Willem IIvs
CambuurThe model puts Cambuur at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Cambuur.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Cambuur controls more of the ball (44% vs 54%).
- +Willem II are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Cambuur are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Willem II have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cambuur have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Willem II have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Willem II will be without Culum, Van der Steen, Didillon, Lachkar, Hoogma.
- Cambuur will be without Amofa, Asselman, Боуа, Visser.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Willem II at 35%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Cambuur at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Willem II is priced at 2.565. The draw is priced at 3.72. Cambuur is priced at 2.536.
Willem II have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Cambuur have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Willem II have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Cambuur have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Willem II average 1 goals per game this season. Willem II average 44% possession. Cambuur average 1 goals per game this season. Cambuur average 54% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Willem II or Cambuur?
Our model rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Willem II vs Cambuur?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Willem II wins, 6 draws, 4 Cambuur wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Willem II
- 3Stam
- 5Avest
- 6Twigt
- 7Slory
- 9Haen
- 19van Aalst
- 23Dekker
- 24Tjoe-A-On
- 26Delanghe
- 32van Crooij V.
- 52Vilhena T.
- Culum (Missing Player)
- Van der Steen (Missing Player)
- Didillon (Missing Player)
- Lachkar (Missing Player)
- Hoogma (Missing Player)
Cambuur
- 1Jansen
- 4Baouf
- 8Souren
- 10el Arguioui
- 11Hamache
- 13Binder N.
- 14Van Duijl
- 15Kvam
- 16Mulders
- 28Costarelli
- 33Maertens M.
- Amofa (Missing Player)
- Asselman (Missing Player)
- Боуа (Missing Player)
- Visser (Missing Player)
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27:12 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27:12 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Groningen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22:19 | 14 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:11 | 12 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20:21 | 11 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:26 | 11 |
| 12 |  N.E.C. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:22 | 9 |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:18 | 6 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:26 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.