ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
ADO Den Haagvs
HeerenveenThe model puts Heerenveen at 46%. The model leans toward Heerenveen. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours ADO Den Haag (8-6-1).
- +Heerenveen creates more chances (13 vs 15 shots per game).
- +ADO Den Haag are dealing with notable absentees.
- −ADO Den Haag controls more of the ball (57% vs 51%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- ADO Den Haag have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heerenveen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- ADO Den Haag will be without Reischl, Барань.
- Heerenveen will be without Proper D..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts ADO Den Haag at 31%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Heerenveen at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Heerenveen. ADO Den Haag is priced at 3.38. The draw is priced at 3.82. Heerenveen is priced at 2.015.
ADO Den Haag have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Heerenveen have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
ADO Den Haag have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Heerenveen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
ADO Den Haag average 2 goals per game this season. ADO Den Haag average 57% possession. Heerenveen average 2 goals per game this season. Heerenveen average 51% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, ADO Den Haag or Heerenveen?
Our model rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 ADO Den Haag wins, 6 draws, 1 Heerenveen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
ADO Den Haag
- 0Nikiema
- 0Waem
- 0Mulder
- 0Wilhelm
- 0Sylla
- 0Zamburek
- 0Rottier
- 0Kilo
- 0Jensen-Abbew
- 0Bal
- 0Eduardo
- Reischl (Missing Player)
- Барань (Questionable)
Heerenveen
- 0Klaverboer
- 0Zagaritis
- 0Willemsen
- 0Kersten S.
- 0Braude
- 0Linday
- 0Courtens
- 0Rivera
- 0Smans
- 0Trenskow
- 0Vente D.
- Proper D. (Questionable)
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 31:10 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | 20 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 27:12 | 19 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 27:12 | 18 |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17:10 | 17 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Groningen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22:19 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15:11 | 12 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20:21 | 11 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 | 11 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16:26 | 11 |
| 12 |  N.E.C. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | 10 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16:22 | 9 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:18 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11:20 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9:26 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.