Germany. 2. Bundesliga

Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Arminia Bielefeldvs

VfL Osnabruck

Our predictionArminia Bielefeld to win

Model score: Medium · 52/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 52%. The model leans toward Arminia Bielefeld. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours VfL Osnabruck (1-7-7).
−Arminia Bielefeld are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Arminia Bielefeld52%

Draw22%

2 · VfL Osnabruck26%

1 · Arminia BielefeldDraw2 · VfL Osnabruck

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.55+14.9%

1X2VfL Osnabruck4.12+3.3%

1X2Draw3.94-1.3%

1X2Arminia Bielefeld1.75-2.0%

BTTSNo2.30-14.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Arminia BielefeldDWLWD

VfL OsnabruckWDDLD

Expected goals

2.90Arminia Bielefeld

1.56VfL Osnabruck

Over 2.5 goals82%

Both teams to score75%

Team strength rating

Arminia Bielefeld

VfL Osnabruck

Most likely scorelines

2-17.6%

3-17.3%

2-25.9%

3-25.7%

4-15.3%

1-15.2%

Match DNA

Arminia Bielefeld VfL Osnabruck

Key points

Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
VfL Osnabruck have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Arminia Bielefeld have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Arminia Bielefeld will be without Momuluh, Daniel Richter.
Arminia Bielefeld is priced at 1.747.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Arminia Bielefeld win1.75Fair (-2.0%)

Double chanceArminia Bielefeld or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	1	2	1
1	3	5	4	2
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	5	7	6	3	1
4	3	5	4	2
5	2	3	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 52%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts VfL Osnabruck at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market leans toward Arminia Bielefeld. Arminia Bielefeld is priced at 1.747. The draw is priced at 3.94. VfL Osnabruck is priced at 4.12.

Arminia Bielefeld have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. VfL Osnabruck have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.

Arminia Bielefeld have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. VfL Osnabruck have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Arminia Bielefeld average 3 goals per game this season. Arminia Bielefeld average 42% possession. VfL Osnabruck average 2 goals per game this season. VfL Osnabruck average 40% possession.

The model gives 75% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Arminia Bielefeld or VfL Osnabruck?

Our model rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabruck?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 1 Arminia Bielefeld wins, 7 draws, 7 VfL Osnabruck wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 1.75 Draw 3.94 Away 4.12

Match statistics

Player of the matchFabinskiVfL Osnabruck8.9