Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paris Saint-Germainvs
LyonThe model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 70%. The model leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Paris Saint-Germain.
- +The head-to-head record favours Paris Saint-Germain (11-1-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Paris Saint-Germain have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.416.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 70%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Lyon at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.416. The draw is priced at 5.1. Lyon is priced at 6.6.
Paris Saint-Germain have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Lyon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paris Saint-Germain have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Paris Saint-Germain are on 5 wins in a row. Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Paris Saint-Germain average 1 goals per game this season. Paris Saint-Germain average 68% possession. Lyon average 1 goals per game this season. Lyon average 48% possession.
The model gives 30% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paris Saint-Germain or Lyon?
Our model rates Paris Saint-Germain as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 Paris Saint-Germain wins, 1 draws, 3 Lyon wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 |  AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.