Auxerre vs Le Mans: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Auxerrevs
Le MansThe model puts Auxerre at 50%. The model leans toward Auxerre. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Auxerre.
- +The head-to-head record favours Auxerre (9-3-3).
- −Auxerre are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Le Mans are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Auxerre have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Le Mans have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Auxerre have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Auxerre will be without Labeau Lascary, Diousse, Okoh, Fofana.
- Le Mans will be without Bourabaa, Colas, Voyer.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Auxerre at 50%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Le Mans at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Auxerre. Auxerre is priced at 2.07. The draw is priced at 3.64. Le Mans is priced at 3.38.
Auxerre have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Le Mans have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Auxerre have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Le Mans have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Auxerre average 1 goals per game this season. Auxerre average 44% possession. Le Mans average 2 goals per game this season. Le Mans average 39% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Auxerre or Le Mans?
Our model rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Le Mans?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Auxerre wins, 3 draws, 3 Le Mans wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 |  AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.