AS Monaco vs Lille OSC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AS Monacovs
Lille OSCThe model puts AS Monaco at 47%. The model leans toward AS Monaco. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours AS Monaco.
- −The head-to-head record favours Lille OSC (4-4-7).
- −AS Monaco are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Lille OSC are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- AS Monaco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lille OSC have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AS Monaco have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AS Monaco will be without Idumbo, Dier E..
- Lille OSC will be without Igamane, Sahraoui, Santos, Ueda A..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AS Monaco at 47%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Lille OSC at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward AS Monaco. AS Monaco is priced at 2.07. The draw is priced at 3.3. Lille OSC is priced at 3.72.
AS Monaco have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Lille OSC have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
AS Monaco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lille OSC have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
AS Monaco average 2 goals per game this season. AS Monaco average 35% possession. Lille OSC average 2 goals per game this season. Lille OSC average 45% possession.
The model gives 67% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AS Monaco or Lille OSC?
Our model rates AS Monaco as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AS Monaco vs Lille OSC?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 AS Monaco wins, 4 draws, 7 Lille OSC wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 | Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.