Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Philadelphia Unionvs
CharlotteThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 66%. The model leans toward Philadelphia Union. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Charlotte.
- +Philadelphia Union creates more chances (18 vs 10 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Charlotte are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Philadelphia Union have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Philadelphia Union will be without Bueno J..
- Charlotte will be without John, Berchimas, Goodwin, Doucoure M..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Philadelphia Union at 66%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Charlotte at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.41. The draw is priced at 5.3. Charlotte is priced at 6.35.
Philadelphia Union have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Charlotte have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Philadelphia Union have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Charlotte have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union average 2 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 49% possession. Charlotte average 2 goals per game this season. Charlotte average 44% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or Charlotte?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 10 meetings: 4 Philadelphia Union wins, 2 draws, 4 Charlotte wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.