New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New England Revolutionvs
Chicago FireThe model puts Chicago Fire at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +New England Revolution are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Chicago Fire are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New England Revolution will be without Campana L., Fofana, Harrison J., Yusuf Al..
- Chicago Fire will be without Elliott J., Lod R., Rogers S., Russo Franco.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts New England Revolution at 37%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Chicago Fire at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. New England Revolution is priced at 2.584. The draw is priced at 3.74. Chicago Fire is priced at 2.504.
New England Revolution have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Chicago Fire have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 9 of their head-to-head meetings.
New England Revolution have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire are on 2 wins in a row.
New England Revolution average 2 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 52% possession. Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 51% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New England Revolution or Chicago Fire?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 New England Revolution wins, 9 draws, 4 Chicago Fire wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.