Internazionale Milano vs Fiorentina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Internazionale Milanovs
FiorentinaThe model puts Internazionale Milano at 65%. The model leans toward Internazionale Milano. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Fiorentina (2-3-10).
- −Recent form favours Internazionale Milano.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Internazionale Milano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fiorentina have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Internazionale Milano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Internazionale Milano is priced at 1.36.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Internazionale Milano at 65%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Fiorentina at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Internazionale Milano. Internazionale Milano is priced at 1.36. The draw is priced at 5.35. Fiorentina is priced at 7.6.
Internazionale Milano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Fiorentina have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Internazionale Milano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Fiorentina have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Internazionale Milano average 4 goals per game this season. Internazionale Milano average 66% possession. Fiorentina average 2 goals per game this season. Fiorentina average 38% possession.
The model gives 71% for both teams to score. The model gives 90% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Internazionale Milano or Fiorentina?
Our model rates Internazionale Milano as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Internazionale Milano vs Fiorentina?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Internazionale Milano wins, 3 draws, 10 Fiorentina wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale Milano | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Roma | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 13 |
| 5 |  Milan | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11:5 | 12 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Como | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Frosinone Calcio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:8 | 9 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 12 |  Torino | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 15 |  Udinese Calcio | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:13 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5:16 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.