Lazio vs Parma: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Laziovs
ParmaThe model puts Lazio at 65%. The model leans toward Lazio. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lazio.
- +The head-to-head record favours Lazio (12-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Lazio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Parma have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lazio have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lazio is priced at 1.525.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lazio at 65%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Parma at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Lazio. Lazio is priced at 1.525. The draw is priced at 4.16. Parma is priced at 6.4.
Lazio have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. Parma have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lazio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Parma have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lazio average 2 goals per game this season. Lazio average 40% possession. Parma average 1 goals per game this season. Parma average 39% possession.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lazio or Parma?
Our model rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lazio vs Parma?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 12 Lazio wins, 2 draws, 1 Parma wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Roma | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 13 |
| 5 |  Milan | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11:5 | 12 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Como | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Frosinone Calcio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:8 | 9 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 12 |  Torino | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 15 |  Udinese Calcio | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:13 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5:16 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.