Udinese Calcio vs Milan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Udinese Calciovs
MilanThe model puts Milan at 52%. The model leans toward Milan. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Udinese Calcio (7-4-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Udinese Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Milan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Udinese Calcio have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Milan is priced at 1.768.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Udinese Calcio at 24%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Milan at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Milan. Udinese Calcio is priced at 4.5. The draw is priced at 3.76. Milan is priced at 1.768.
Udinese Calcio have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Milan have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Udinese Calcio have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Milan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Udinese Calcio average 1 goals per game this season. Udinese Calcio average 41% possession. Milan average 2 goals per game this season. Milan average 59% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Udinese Calcio or Milan?
Our model rates Milan as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Udinese Calcio vs Milan?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Udinese Calcio wins, 4 draws, 4 Milan wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Roma | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:3 | 14 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 13 |
| 5 | Milan | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11:5 | 12 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Como | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Frosinone Calcio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:8 | 9 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 12 |  Torino | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bologna 1909 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese Calcio | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:13 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 18 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 19 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 5:16 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.