Club Necaxa vs Atlas Guadalajara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Necaxavs
Atlas GuadalajaraThe model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Club Necaxa (8-3-4).
- −Atlas Guadalajara are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Necaxa have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atlas Guadalajara will be without Cruz, Barros.
- Atlas Guadalajara is priced at 2.09.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Necaxa at 33%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Atlas Guadalajara. Club Necaxa is priced at 3.1. The draw is priced at 3.6. Atlas Guadalajara is priced at 2.09.
Club Necaxa have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlas Guadalajara have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Necaxa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Necaxa or Atlas Guadalajara?
Our model rates Atlas Guadalajara as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Necaxa vs Atlas Guadalajara?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Club Necaxa wins, 3 draws, 4 Atlas Guadalajara wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.