Cruz Azul vs Juarez: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The model puts Cruz Azul at 70%. The model leans toward Cruz Azul. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Juarez (2-2-11).
- −Cruz Azul are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Juarez are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruz Azul have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Juarez have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cruz Azul will be without Paradela J., Rotondi, Levi, Morales.
- Juarez will be without Ayon, Romero, Romero, Aquino Jav., Torres.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruz Azul at 70%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Juarez at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Cruz Azul. Cruz Azul is priced at 1.31. The draw is priced at 5.25. Juarez is priced at 10.
Cruz Azul have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Juarez have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cruz Azul have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Juarez have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruz Azul or Juarez?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruz Azul vs Juarez?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Cruz Azul wins, 2 draws, 11 Juarez wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.