BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
BG Pathum Unitedvs
Adelaide UnitedThe model puts BG Pathum United at 46%. The model leans toward BG Pathum United. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- BG Pathum United have 1 wins in their last 4 matches.
- BG Pathum United is priced at 2.059.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts BG Pathum United at 46%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Adelaide United at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward BG Pathum United. BG Pathum United is priced at 2.059. The draw is priced at 3.74. Adelaide United is priced at 3.1.
BG Pathum United have 1 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, BG Pathum United or Adelaide United?
Our model rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Adelaide United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
BG Pathum United
- 3Quintana Alonso
- 5Kaman
- 6Yooyen
- 10Andersen L.
- 11Gustavsson
- 16Yanagi
- 20Jurina M.
- 26Belmonte
- 27Scherzer
- 28Anuin S.
- 30Рама Кальвино
Adelaide United
- 4Kikianis
- 10Gallego
- 11Goodwin
- 12Yull
- 14Barnett Ja.
- 22Smits J.
- 35Burkitt
- 52Филлис
- 55Alagic
- 58Crawford
- 87de Moraes An.
Match story
How the game unfoldedAn end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Jurina M. (2'), Goodwin (10')). Score moves to 1–1.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (1–1)
Half-time score: BG Pathum United 1 – 1 Adelaide United.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
League table
AFC Champions League 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Wahda Abu Dhabi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Al Kuwait SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 3 |  Nasaf Qarshi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  Al Khalidiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.