Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Mirassolvs

Sao Paulo

Our predictionMirassol to win

Model score: High · 63/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Mirassol at 44%. The model leans toward Mirassol. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours Mirassol (8-3-4).
+Mirassol creates more chances (16 vs 11 shots per game).

Win probabilities

1 · Mirassol44%

Draw28%

2 · Sao Paulo28%

1 · MirassolDraw2 · Sao Paulo

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.93+9.9%

1X2Mirassol2.34+3.6%

1X2Draw3.24-1.8%

1X2Sao Paulo3.15-1.8%

BTTSYes1.78-9.9%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

MirassolLLLWL

Sao PauloLLDWL

Expected goals

1.31Mirassol

0.86Sao Paulo

Over 2.5 goals37%

Both teams to score42%

Team strength rating

Mirassol

Sao Paulo

Most likely scorelines

1-015.0%

1-112.9%

0-011.5%

0-19.8%

2-09.8%

2-18.4%

Match DNA

Mirassol Sao Paulo

Key points

Mirassol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sao Paulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Mirassol have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mirassol is priced at 2.34.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Mirassol win2.34Fair (+3.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	11	10	4	1
1	15	13	6	2
2	10	8	4	1
3	4	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Mirassol at 44%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Sao Paulo at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market frames this as a close contest. Mirassol is priced at 2.34. The draw is priced at 3.24. Sao Paulo is priced at 3.15.

Mirassol have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Sao Paulo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Mirassol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sao Paulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Mirassol average 1 goals per game this season. Mirassol average 51% possession. Sao Paulo average 1 goals per game this season. Sao Paulo average 56% possession.

The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Mirassol or Sao Paulo?

Our model rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Sao Paulo?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 8 Mirassol wins, 3 draws, 4 Sao Paulo wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	4	7	61:25	67
2	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras	31	19	3	9	54:22	66
3	Clube Atletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49:37	53
4	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube	31	15	10	6	50:46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	8	9	49:39	51
6	Clube Atletico Mineiro	31	14	9	8	42:35	50
7	Bahia	31	13	8	10	44:39	49
8	Santos	31	12	10	9	48:46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	13	6	36:35	42
10	Red Bull Bragantino	31	11	12	8	39:36	41
11	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas	31	10	12	9	44:48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	12	9	38:49	39
13	EC Vitoria Salvador	31	10	14	7	34:45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	13	9	36:44	36
15	CR Vasco da Gama	30	9	13	8	36:43	35
16	Corinthians Paulista	31	8	14	9	32:39	33
17	Sport Club Internacional	31	7	13	11	33:40	32
18	Gremio Porto Alegrense	31	7	14	10	34:44	31
19	Clube do Remo	31	5	15	11	34:49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	18	9	30:62	18

Promotion - Copa Libertadores - (Group stage) Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) Promotion - Copa Sudamericana Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.