EC Vitoria Salvador vs Clube Atletico Paranaense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
EC Vitoria Salvadorvs
Clube Atletico ParanaenseThe model puts EC Vitoria Salvador at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +EC Vitoria Salvador creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head record favours Clube Atletico Paranaense (5-2-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- EC Vitoria Salvador have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Clube Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- EC Vitoria Salvador have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- EC Vitoria Salvador is priced at 2.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts EC Vitoria Salvador at 38%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Clube Atletico Paranaense at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. EC Vitoria Salvador is priced at 2.56. The draw is priced at 3.36. Clube Atletico Paranaense is priced at 2.736.
EC Vitoria Salvador have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Clube Atletico Paranaense have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
EC Vitoria Salvador have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Clube Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
EC Vitoria Salvador average 1 goals per game this season. EC Vitoria Salvador average 45% possession. Clube Atletico Paranaense average 1 goals per game this season. Clube Atletico Paranaense average 43% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, EC Vitoria Salvador or Clube Atletico Paranaense?
Our model rates EC Vitoria Salvador as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for EC Vitoria Salvador vs Clube Atletico Paranaense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 EC Vitoria Salvador wins, 2 draws, 8 Clube Atletico Paranaense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 61:25 | 67 |
| 2 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 54:22 | 66 |
| 3 | Clube Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49:37 | 53 |
| 4 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 50:46 | 51 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 49:39 | 51 |
| 6 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 42:35 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 44:39 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 48:46 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 36:35 | 42 |
| 10 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 39:36 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 44:48 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 38:49 | 39 |
| 13 | EC Vitoria Salvador | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 34:45 | 37 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 36:44 | 36 |
| 15 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 36:43 | 35 |
| 16 |  Corinthians Paulista | 31 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 32:39 | 33 |
| 17 |  Sport Club Internacional | 31 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 33:40 | 32 |
| 18 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 31 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 34:44 | 31 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 31 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 34:49 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 30 | 3 | 18 | 9 | 30:62 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.