Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Sociedade Esportiva Palmeirasvs

Red Bull Bragantino

Our predictionSociedade Esportiva Palmeiras to win

Model score: High · 85/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 59%. The model leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
−Recent form favours Red Bull Bragantino.
−The head-to-head record favours Red Bull Bragantino (2-5-8).
−Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras are dealing with notable absentees.
+Red Bull Bragantino are dealing with notable absentees.
+Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras controls more of the ball (54% vs 47%).

Win probabilities

1 · Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras59%

Draw20%

2 · Red Bull Bragantino22%

1 · Sociedade Esportiva PalmeirasDraw2 · Red Bull Bragantino

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Red Bull Bragantino5.70+5.0%

BTTSNo1.95+1.5%

BTTSYes1.77-1.5%

1X2Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras1.57-1.8%

1X2Draw4.12-3.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Sociedade Esportiva PalmeirasDLDLL

Red Bull BragantinoDWWLL

Team strength rating

Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras

Red Bull Bragantino

Expected goals

2.08Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras

0.87Red Bull Bragantino

Over 2.5 goals57%

Both teams to score51%

Most likely scorelines

2-011.3%

1-010.9%

2-19.8%

1-19.4%

3-07.9%

3-16.8%

Match DNA

Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras Red Bull Bragantino

Key points

Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Red Bull Bragantino have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras will be without Pereira An., Betancor, Roque V., Piquerez.
Red Bull Bragantino will be without Davi Gomes de Alvarenga, Ramires, Mosquera, Rodriguinho.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras win1.57Fair (-1.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	5	5	2
1	11	9	4	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	8	7	3
4	4	4	2
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 59%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 1.57. The draw is priced at 4.12. Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 5.7.

Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Red Bull Bragantino have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.

Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Red Bull Bragantino have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 2 goals per game this season. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 54% possession. Red Bull Bragantino average 1 goals per game this season. Red Bull Bragantino average 47% possession.

The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras or Red Bull Bragantino?

Our model rates Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 2 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins, 5 draws, 8 Red Bull Bragantino wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchBarbosaRed Bull Bragantino8.8