Bayern Munich vs Arsenal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bayern Munichvs
ArsenalThe model puts Bayern Munich at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Bayern Munich.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bayern Munich have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayern Munich have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayern Munich is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bayern Munich at 43%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Arsenal at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-2.
The market leans toward Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich is priced at 2.15. The draw is priced at 3.78. Arsenal is priced at 3.09.
Bayern Munich have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Arsenal have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bayern Munich have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Arsenal have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bayern Munich average 5 goals per game this season. Bayern Munich average 66% possession. Arsenal average 1 goals per game this season. Arsenal average 58% possession.
The model gives 84% for both teams to score. The model gives 89% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bayern Munich or Arsenal?
Our model rates Bayern Munich as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bayern Munich vs Arsenal?
A scoreline around 3-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Bayern Munich wins, 2 draws, 7 Arsenal wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Champions League (League stage)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:3 | 6 |
| 2 |  Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 6 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  Real Madrid | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 9 |  Real Betis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 10 | Bayern Munich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 11 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Como | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:4 | 3 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Villarreal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 16 |  Club Brugge | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 17 |  Manchester City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 19 |  RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 20 |  AEK Athens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 21 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Sabah Baku | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 23 |  Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 24 |  Bodo-Glimt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Roma | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 26 |  PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 |  Viking | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4:6 | 1 |
| 28 |  Fenerbahce | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:7 | 1 |
| 29 |  Internazionale Milano | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:6 | 0 |
| 30 |  Porto | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 31 |  Slavia Prague | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 32 |  Napoli | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 33 |  LASK Linz | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Lille OSC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Galatasaray | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.