UEFA Europa League

OFI Crete vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

OFI Cretevs

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Our predictionBayer 04 Leverkusen to win

Model score: High · 66/100

Score hint: 0-2

The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 70%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: high.

Win probabilities

1 · OFI Crete12%

Draw18%

2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen70%

1 · OFI CreteDraw2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.05+3.1%

1X2OFI Crete8.40+0.8%

1X2Draw5.30-0.2%

1X2Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.34-0.6%

BTTSYes1.70-3.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

0.80OFI Crete

2.74Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Over 2.5 goals69%

Both teams to score52%

Team strength rating

OFI Crete

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Most likely scorelines

0-210.9%

0-39.9%

1-28.7%

1-38.0%

0-17.9%

0-46.8%

Match DNA

OFI Crete Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Key points

Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.34.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Bayer 04 Leverkusen win1.34Fair (-0.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	8	11	10	7	4
1	2	6	9	8	5	3
2		3	4	3	2	1
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts OFI Crete at 12%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 70%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.

The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. OFI Crete is priced at 8.4. The draw is priced at 5.3. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.34.

OFI Crete average 2 goals per game this season. OFI Crete average 33% possession. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 2 goals per game this season. Bayer 04 Leverkusen average 56% possession.

The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, OFI Crete or Bayer 04 Leverkusen?

Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for OFI Crete vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?

A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Europa League - League stage

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	7:1	6
2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	6:0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	6:1	6
4	Besiktas	2	2	0	0	7:3	6
5	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
6	AC Omonia	2	2	0	0	4:0	6
7	Ferencvarosi	2	2	0	0	5:2	6
8	Lyon	2	2	0	0	5:3	6
9	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
10	Olympiacos Piraeus	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
11	AC Sparta Prague	2	1	0	1	5:2	4
12	Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2	1	0	1	4:1	4
13	Stade Rennais	2	1	0	1	2:1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	0	1	1:0	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	6:3	3
16	Milan	2	1	1	0	4:2	3
17	Jagiellonia Bialystok	2	1	1	0	4:3	3
18	OFI Crete	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
19	S.C.U. Torreense	2	1	1	0	3:3	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	2:2	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	1	1	0	1:4	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
23	Lillestrom	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
25	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	0	1	1	0:3	1
27	N.E.C.	2	0	1	1	1:6	1
28	Celta	2	0	2	0	1:3	0
29	Anderlecht	2	0	2	0	1:3	0
30	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	2:5	0
31	Viktoria Plzen	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
32	Olympique de Marseille	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
33	Celtic	2	0	2	0	2:7	0
34	Ararat - Armenia	2	0	2	0	2:7	0
35	Celje	2	0	2	0	0:5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	0	2	0	0:8	0