UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Lech Poznanvs

Sunderland

Our predictionSunderland to win

Model score: Medium · 43/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Sunderland at 57%. The model leans toward Sunderland. Confidence: medium.

Win probabilities

1 · Lech Poznan20%

Draw23%

2 · Sunderland57%

1 · Lech PoznanDraw2 · Sunderland

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.95+30.1%

1X2Lech Poznan4.96+0.7%

1X2Draw4.06-0.2%

1X2Sunderland1.65-0.5%

BTTSYes1.78-30.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

0.46Lech Poznan

0.91Sunderland

Over 2.5 goals16%

Both teams to score22%

Team strength rating

Lech Poznan

Sunderland

Most likely scorelines

0-025.3%

0-123.1%

1-011.7%

1-110.7%

0-210.5%

1-24.9%

Match DNA

Lech Poznan Sunderland

Key points

Sunderland is priced at 1.65.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Sunderland win1.65Fair (-0.5%)

Double chanceSunderland or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	25	23	11	3
1	12	11	5	1
2	3	2	1
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Lech Poznan at 20%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Sunderland at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Sunderland. Lech Poznan is priced at 4.96. The draw is priced at 4.06. Sunderland is priced at 1.65.

Lech Poznan average 0 goals per game this season. Lech Poznan average 47% possession. Sunderland average 1 goals per game this season. Sunderland average 45% possession.

The model gives 22% for both teams to score. The model gives 16% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Lech Poznan or Sunderland?

Our model rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Europa League - League stage

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	7:1	6
2	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	6:0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	6:1	6
4	Besiktas	2	2	0	0	7:3	6
5	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
6	AC Omonia	2	2	0	0	4:0	6
7	Ferencvarosi	2	2	0	0	5:2	6
8	Lyon	2	2	0	0	5:3	6
9	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
10	Olympiacos Piraeus	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
11	AC Sparta Prague	2	1	0	1	5:2	4
12	Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2	1	0	1	4:1	4
13	Stade Rennais	2	1	0	1	2:1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	0	1	1:0	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	6:3	3
16	Milan	2	1	1	0	4:2	3
17	Jagiellonia Bialystok	2	1	1	0	4:3	3
18	OFI Crete	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
19	S.C.U. Torreense	2	1	1	0	3:3	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	1	0	2:2	3
21	FC Salzburg	2	1	1	0	1:4	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
23	Lillestrom	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
25	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	0	1	1	0:3	1
27	N.E.C.	2	0	1	1	1:6	1
28	Celta	2	0	2	0	1:3	0
29	Anderlecht	2	0	2	0	1:3	0
30	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	2:5	0
31	Viktoria Plzen	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
32	Olympique de Marseille	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
33	Celtic	2	0	2	0	2:7	0
34	Ararat - Armenia	2	0	2	0	2:7	0
35	Celje	2	0	2	0	0:5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	0	2	0	0:8	0