TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
TSG 1899 Hoffenheimvs
LyonThe model puts Lyon at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lyon.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lyon is priced at 2.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 36%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Lyon at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 2.525. The draw is priced at 3.66. Lyon is priced at 2.6.
The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim average 0 goals per game this season. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim average 67% possession. Lyon average 2 goals per game this season. Lyon average 42% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Lyon?
Our model rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins, 3 draws, 0 Lyon wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Europa League - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Besiktas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  AC Omonia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 7 |  Ferencvarosi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Olympiacos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 11 |  AC Sparta Prague | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 13 |  Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 14 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  Milan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 17 |  Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 18 |  OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 19 |  S.C.U. Torreense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 |  AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 21 |  FC Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 23 |  Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 24 |  Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 25 |  Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 27 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 28 |  Celta | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 29 |  Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 30 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 31 |  Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 32 |  Olympique de Marseille | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 33 |  Celtic | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Ararat - Armenia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celje | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.