Ararat - Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ararat - Armeniavs
AZ AlkmaarThe model puts AZ Alkmaar at 57%. The model leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.656.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 23 | 10 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ararat - Armenia at 20%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Ararat - Armenia is priced at 4.9. The draw is priced at 4.06. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.656.
Ararat - Armenia average 1 goals per game this season. Ararat - Armenia average 41% possession. AZ Alkmaar average 0 goals per game this season. AZ Alkmaar average 55% possession.
The model gives 22% for both teams to score. The model gives 16% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ararat - Armenia or AZ Alkmaar?
Our model rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ararat - Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Europa League - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Besiktas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  AC Omonia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 7 |  Ferencvarosi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 8 |  Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 10 |  Olympiacos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 11 |  AC Sparta Prague | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 13 |  Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 14 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  Milan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 17 |  Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 18 |  OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 19 |  S.C.U. Torreense | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 21 |  FC Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 3 |
| 22 |  Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 23 |  Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 24 |  Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 25 |  Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 27 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 28 |  Celta | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 29 |  Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 30 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 31 |  Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 32 |  Olympique de Marseille | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 33 |  Celtic | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat - Armenia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celje | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.