VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VfL Bochumvs
VfL WolfsburgThe model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 49%. The model leans toward VfL Wolfsburg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +VfL Wolfsburg score more per game (0.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Recent form favours VfL Wolfsburg.
- +VfL Wolfsburg creates more chances (16 vs 18 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +VfL Bochum are dealing with notable absentees.
- −VfL Wolfsburg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- VfL Bochum have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- VfL Bochum will be without Cokaj, Drakas, Mbom J., Olsen O., Strompf.
- VfL Wolfsburg will be without Trevor Benedict, Oliveira da Silva R., Svanberg Ma., Hornby F..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VfL Bochum at 29%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts VfL Wolfsburg at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward VfL Wolfsburg. VfL Bochum is priced at 3.085. The draw is priced at 3.8. VfL Wolfsburg is priced at 2.07.
VfL Bochum have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. VfL Wolfsburg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
VfL Bochum have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. VfL Wolfsburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
VfL Bochum average 0 goals per game this season. VfL Bochum average 57% possession. VfL Wolfsburg average 2 goals per game this season. VfL Wolfsburg average 55% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VfL Bochum or VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 VfL Bochum wins, 3 draws, 5 VfL Wolfsburg wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
VfL Bochum
- 1Horn T.
- 2Klaiber
- 5Mets K.
- 7Rasmussen C.
- 15Steinwender M.
- 17Holtmann
- 23Miyoshi
- 24Pannewig
- 32Wittek
- 33Hofmann
- 34Meyer
- Cokaj (Missing Player)
- Drakas (Missing Player)
- Mbom J. (Missing Player)
- Olsen O. (Missing Player)
- Strompf (Missing Player)
VfL Wolfsburg
- 1Wellenreuther
- 5Vinicius de Souza Costa
- 6Wahl H.
- 11Reese F.
- 17Bernhardsson
- 19Glatzel
- 20Damar
- 21Maehle
- 26Kumbedi Nseke
- 31Gerhardt
- 33Kleyton
- Trevor Benedict (Missing Player)
- Oliveira da Silva R. (Missing Player)
- Svanberg Ma. (Missing Player)
- Hornby F. (Missing Player)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 | 15 |
| 4 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8:4 | 15 |
| 5 |  1. Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 14 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 |  St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 10 |  Greuther Furth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 16 | VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5:9 | 7 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7:11 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.