Darmstadt 98 vs St. Pauli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Darmstadt 98vs
St. PauliThe model puts St. Pauli at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Darmstadt 98 (10-2-3).
- +Recent form favours St. Pauli.
- +Darmstadt 98 are dealing with notable absentees.
- −St. Pauli are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Darmstadt 98 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Darmstadt 98 have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Darmstadt 98 will be without Marseiler, Sickinger, Nuernberger, Papela M..
- St. Pauli will be without Mathisen M., Pereira Ma., Thordarson.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Darmstadt 98 at 33%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts St. Pauli at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Darmstadt 98 is priced at 3.03. The draw is priced at 3.48. St. Pauli is priced at 2.21.
Darmstadt 98 have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Pauli have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Darmstadt 98 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Pauli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Darmstadt 98 average 1 goals per game this season. Darmstadt 98 average 41% possession. St. Pauli average 2 goals per game this season. St. Pauli average 47% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Darmstadt 98 or St. Pauli?
Our model rates St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Darmstadt 98 vs St. Pauli?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Darmstadt 98 wins, 2 draws, 3 St. Pauli wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Darmstadt 98
- 1Schuhen
- 5Richter M.
- 6Pfeiffer
- 7Weisshaupt
- 9Lee H-J.
- 16Akiyama H.
- 17Klefisch
- 18Petretta
- 20Vukotic
- 25Микельбренк
- 36Smith
- Marseiler (Missing Player)
- Sickinger (Missing Player)
- Nuernberger (Missing Player)
- Papela M. (Missing Player)
St. Pauli
- 1Voll
- 4Nemeth D.
- 7Niang
- 8Smith E.
- 9Ceesay
- 11Pyrka
- 16Fujita Jo.
- 20Rasmussen Mat.
- 21Ritzka
- 23Oppie
- 24Metcalfe C.
- Mathisen M. (Questionable)
- Pereira Ma. (Missing Player)
- Thordarson (Missing Player)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 | 15 |
| 4 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8:4 | 15 |
| 5 |  1. Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 14 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 | St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 10 |  Greuther Furth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5:9 | 7 |
| 17 | Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7:11 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.