1. Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Heidenheimvs
Energie CottbusThe model puts 1. Heidenheim at 58%. The model leans toward 1. Heidenheim. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +1. Heidenheim score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +1. Heidenheim creates more chances (22 vs 19 shots per game).
- −1. Heidenheim are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Energie Cottbus are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Heidenheim will be without Breunig, Conteh S., Busch M., Zivzivadze.
- Energie Cottbus will be without Butler, Engelhardt, Gutta J., Borgmann.
- 1. Heidenheim is priced at 1.686.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. Heidenheim at 58%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Energie Cottbus at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward 1. Heidenheim. 1. Heidenheim is priced at 1.686. The draw is priced at 4.5. Energie Cottbus is priced at 3.945.
1. Heidenheim average 3 goals per game this season. 1. Heidenheim average 48% possession. Energie Cottbus average 2 goals per game this season. Energie Cottbus average 51% possession.
The model gives 71% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Heidenheim or Energie Cottbus?
Our model rates 1. Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 | 15 |
| 4 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8:4 | 15 |
| 5 | 1. Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 14 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 |  St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 | Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 10 |  Greuther Furth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5:9 | 7 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7:11 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.