1. Magdeburg vs Karlsruher: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Magdeburgvs
KarlsruherThe model puts 1. Magdeburg at 52%. The model leans toward 1. Magdeburg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours 1. Magdeburg.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Karlsruher are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Magdeburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Karlsruher have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Magdeburg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- 1. Magdeburg will be without Michel.
- Karlsruher will be without Santos H., Broschinski.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. Magdeburg at 52%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Karlsruher at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward 1. Magdeburg. 1. Magdeburg is priced at 1.76. The draw is priced at 4.1. Karlsruher is priced at 3.88.
1. Magdeburg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Karlsruher have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. Magdeburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Karlsruher have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
1. Magdeburg average 2 goals per game this season. 1. Magdeburg average 46% possession. Karlsruher average 1 goals per game this season. Karlsruher average 48% possession.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Magdeburg or Karlsruher?
Our model rates 1. Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Magdeburg vs Karlsruher?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 5 1. Magdeburg wins, 3 draws, 6 Karlsruher wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 | 15 |
| 4 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8:4 | 15 |
| 5 |  1. Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 14 |
| 6 | 1. Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 |  St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 10 |  Greuther Furth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 13 | Karlsruher | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5:9 | 7 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7:11 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.