Celtic vs Dundee United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Celticvs
Dundee UnitedThe model puts Celtic at 68%. The model leans toward Celtic. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Dundee United.
- −The head-to-head record favours Dundee United (2-2-11).
- −Celtic are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Dundee United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Celtic have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dundee United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celtic have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Celtic will be without Trusty A., Jahn.
- Dundee United will be without Agyei, Merghem, Ferry W..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 8 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 26 | 9 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Celtic at 68%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Dundee United at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Celtic. Celtic is priced at 1.27. The draw is priced at 5.75. Dundee United is priced at 9.2.
Celtic have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Dundee United have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Celtic have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dundee United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Dundee United are on 2 wins in a row.
Celtic average 1 goals per game this season. Celtic average 66% possession. Dundee United average 0 goals per game this season. Dundee United average 58% possession.
The model gives 19% for both teams to score. The model gives 18% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Celtic or Dundee United?
Our model rates Celtic as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Celtic vs Dundee United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Celtic wins, 2 draws, 11 Dundee United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 25:6 | 27 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17:7 | 23 |
| 3 |  Heart of Midlothian | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22:15 | 19 |
| 4 | Dundee United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Dundee | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14:12 | 14 |
| 6 |  St. Mirren | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 11:18 | 13 |
| 7 |  Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 8 |  St. Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11:15 | 12 |
| 9 |  Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12:13 | 11 |
| 10 |  Motherwell | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 11 |  Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:23 | 8 |
| 12 |  Hibernian | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 10:16 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.