Nurnberg vs 1. Kaiserslautern: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nurnbergvs
1. KaiserslauternThe model puts Nurnberg at 51%. The model leans toward Nurnberg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Nurnberg score more per game (3.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Nurnberg creates more chances (19 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Nurnberg controls more of the ball (54% vs 42%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Nurnberg are dealing with notable absentees.
- +1. Kaiserslautern are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Nurnberg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Kaiserslautern have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nurnberg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nurnberg will be without Grimaldi A., Mandic, Bekker, Faye.
- 1. Kaiserslautern will be without Frees, Gibs, Sauer, Rasmussen J..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nurnberg at 51%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts 1. Kaiserslautern at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Nurnberg. Nurnberg is priced at 1.95. The draw is priced at 3.75. 1. Kaiserslautern is priced at 3.44.
Nurnberg have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. Kaiserslautern have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nurnberg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. Kaiserslautern have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nurnberg average 3 goals per game this season. Nurnberg average 54% possession. 1. Kaiserslautern average 1 goals per game this season. 1. Kaiserslautern average 42% possession.
The model gives 66% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nurnberg or 1. Kaiserslautern?
Our model rates Nurnberg as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nurnberg vs 1. Kaiserslautern?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Nurnberg wins, 6 draws, 4 1. Kaiserslautern wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 22:13 | 15 |
| 4 | 1. Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8:4 | 15 |
| 5 |  1. Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:15 | 14 |
| 6 |  1. Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 13 |
| 7 |  St. Pauli | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Energie Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 10 |  Greuther Furth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 11 |  Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 12 |  VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:15 | 8 |
| 13 |  Karlsruher | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  VfL Bochum | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5:9 | 7 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 8:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7:11 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.